A strongly digging medium-level trench would allow cyclogenesis to manifest along the Front Band in CO. A low surface pressure will form and travel in the direction NE/KS, IA and enter WI. Below, we see a strong bottom with strong push to go up in the form of a positive vortex advance. Below, we see a dramatic jet trail creating the bottom of the trench, spreading its different left-side exit across the Northern Plains enhancing the already favorable environment for weathering. winter.
At the surface, we see a mirror image of the low surface as it moves from Intermountain West through the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. It is northwest of the low surface where dramatic dynamics take place, as we have seen the effects on CO and WY, with snowfall starting west of NE and southwest of SC. Here, the depression will shift northeast into the vicinity of MN/WI tomorrow bringing blizzard conditions and a danger of dangerous travel from the WY to the Dakotas and northwest MN.
Regarding the amount of snowfall, we turn to the synchronous probabilities of both above 6″ and 12″, respectfully. We see a general “jackpot” zone set up from east WY to southwest SD, where the highest chance of seeing per foot is over 75%. However, a large, remarkable swath of at least 6 inches will emerge across the aforementioned states from this dramatic spring winter storm that will challenge April’s records!
Speaking of blizzard conditions, power outages are certain with gusts likely to exceed 40 mph or more today and tomorrow, causing heavy snowfall! In addition, it will get extremely cold with wind chills that could drop from a few degrees below zero to single digits and minors across the Northern Plains as this storm enters the Great Lakes! So it’s going to be an impactful Winter event for places that just can’t seem to escape the wrath of the recent Winter!
SEVERE WEATHER COMPONENTS
As Meghan discussed on her blog yesterday, the setup we’re dealing with is once again a different “two-mode” threat to the two main areas that seem poised to see potential. higher ceiling capacity, although anywhere in the general vicinity of a warm area in front of a cold front there is a risk for all sorts of serious hazards! The same low surface affects the Northern Plains with blizzard conditions, which will help promote ripening components for discrete supercells. An unsettled beam in the form of CAPE ejected northward under an intensifying low-level jet stream with strong longitudinal shear spreading across locations along the Ozark Plateau, up the MS River, and into the Midwest. We see this here represented by a thunderstorm mix that combines CAPE and wind shear (10m – black, 850mb – red, 500mb – green and 300mb – blue) to indicate where to look.
The setup revolves around the triple point, where the south side of the front is warm and near the dry line for SE IA, N MO and W IL is where the first action happens this afternoon and tonight for severe storms, supercells and tornadoes. Until tonight, further south there will be a lot of moisture accumulating below the limit inversion where the cold front crosses the dry line, and as a result creating powerful super-compartments and surviving tornadoes. at long term. This same process will also allow a long gale line to form between tonight and tomorrow and push eastward again bringing gusts (outside of any hurricane clusters or super typhoons). I would like to emphasize, however, that there are inherent uncertainties with this setup as the challenge is quite high due to the possibility of bankruptcy – however, this setup is peaking today for a strongnotable outbreaks.
Below we’ll see how this plays out verbatim starting this afternoon and going into the evening as Meghan in her informative blog from yesterday as there will be two parts to this for IA/ IL/MO (then this PM) and then tonight for NE TX/AR/E OK.
Near the triple point for the Upper Midwest region (IA/N. MO/IL, WI):
- Between 3 and 6 p.m. CT, south of the warm front is where the models are targeting discrete convection of the warm region in the form of clusters and superclass fusions. With an extremely favorable environment with strong low shear and high CAPE, strong tornadoes are strongly supported.
- This threat originates north of MO (signal starts from there), prioritized to track into IA and west of IL before moving to the WI/IL border later this evening.
- Strong winds causing damage in excess of 50 – 60+ mph, heavy hail and again tornadoes are all favored for this general area!
Southern Plains – Area TX, OK, AR:
- Further down this area, the environment will remain limited; however, while inversion exists to a low degree, it is today, with the help of eddy currents (cooling) and low-level jets (moisture supply) that accelerate slipping away. Then, it is the eastward movement of cold air that acts as the driving force to create strong and violent storms.
- Storms will hit after 23:00 tonight, with the possibility of nocturnal superstorms as the cold air moves eastward into eastern OK/central TX as it crosses the arid boundary.
- Heavy hail, gusts of more than 60 mph, and prolonged tornadoes are all hazards that can cause significant damage.
- This cannot be emphasized enough – the risk of nocturnal tornadoes is unusually high for this general area with the risk dropping east of the TN! Please prepare accordingly if you live in the area and trust local broadcasters and trusted NWS meteorologists to serve your coverage area!
In short, instead of repeating everything as it was summed up so well from Meghan, I’ll post back from her on how to deal with this situation:
There are many ways to receive alerts, including one that will wake you up if needed. Your primary source of alerts should be NOAA’s weather radio (which can be found on Amazon or at places like Walmart, Target, or sometimes even your local grocery store).
Outdoor sirens are NOT reliable. They are not designed for indoor listening and may not even sound at times.
Prepare your safe space ahead of time. This should be an inner room on the lowest floor of your house. Stock it with a helmet and hard-soled shoes. Put a battery-powered radio there so you can continue to receive information if the power goes out.
Know your shelter plan and make sure your family knows about it too.
Know which county you reside in, how to find it on the map and surrounding counties. Remember, warnings are issued by counties. Knowing the counties near you can help you know ahead of time whether you need to think about getting there safely.
A mobile home/homemade is NOT a safe place to weather a tornado. If you reside in one place, you need to plan to shelter elsewhere. Don’t wait until there is a warning to leave the shelter. If a watch is released, it’s time to start working on your plans. The Red Cross keeps an up-to-date map of open shelters you can visit This.
Stay aware of the weather and get updated forecasts throughout the day. Check your local NWS website or tune in to your local broadcast meteorologists on the news for your area specifics and extended coverage.
Alert your friends, alert your family. If you know someone in the risk area, WARNING THEM. Raise awareness so no one can tell they were caught off guard. Emphasize the gravity of the situation and the need to be prepared.
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands