Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin officially begins tomorrow, and right at that moment, we have an area of concern in the Gulf of Mexico.
Before anyone panics and starts wondering if they need to prepare for a storm, this disturbance is simply: a disturbance.
A look at its satellite presentation tells us it is currently very disorganized and, although there seems to be some kind of obvious center, the shear force has blown away any convective ENEs of the that center. Without the convection surrounding that center, this disturbance would be difficult to organize and intensify.
No wonder the growth opportunities are so small (5-10%) that the EPS modeled yesterday could not be found in the most recent run.
However, Just because it has a very small chance of developing the tropics doesn’t mean there won’t be an impact.
For starters, the Florida Peninsula will receive heavy rain from this disturbance through the weekend.
Much of the Peninsula – especially the west – is deep in drought, rainfall is great news. Even so, as with most rainfall during a drought, it’s probably best not to come all at once. However, we will take what we can get.
As with any disturbance affecting tropical humidity, we will need to monitor the possibility of flash flooding. This disturbance will likely take place in the second half of this week to completely obliterate the peninsula. Repeated heavy rains over the next 4 days or so will certainly cause at least isolated flooding problems.
In addition to some light winds, we’ll need to consider the effects of onshore currents – especially on the eastern side of the peninsula as the disturbance moves out of state. Some coastal flooding and rough seas could be mined early next week.
So in summary: although this disturbance is unlikely to develop further due to relatively adverse environmental conditions (shear, dry air), it is not without impact. Strong winds, heavy rain and the possibility of coastal flooding are all possible, with or without a name.
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX