With severe weather for an area in general for that particular day, it’s always helpful to start by just observing exactly what’s going on in the atmosphere that is manifesting as a storm or catalyst. helpful and prudent. Today, we have strong high-altitude lows across the Great Lakes, and blue here verbatim shows cloud tops that are “cooling” as storms grow higher in the atmosphere. The main force for the ascent that will help drive the storms, with other favorable atmospheric compositions, will be this large-scale feature high above and also at the surface below.
Along with the current observations, let’s see what surface analysis reveals through Weather Forecast Center (WPC .)). A warm front covers the Mid-Atlantic from OH to NJ. This is currently firing off several isolated to scattered storms. Now the main “event” will be the cold side you see below extending from OH to TN. Once the warm front moves north today, all areas will be in the warm zone. As we clear in the middle as we enter the highest heating “window”, destabilization occurs as CAPE strengthens (thanks to the Sun), humidity increases, shear forces increase and then “stimulates” active” main compulsion (cold side) that makes it all happen.
- Water Precipitation. Here, if you live in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions, you already feel the characteristics of tropical air masses with dew points in the 60s and even as low as the 70s. Today will be there’s no shortage of moisture, with PWAT values exceeding an inch at many points, so we’ll have plenty of “fuel” available for parcels to float easily.
2. USA. Here, however, we have a “mixed-layer CAPE”, which basically uses the lowest 100mb of the atmosphere as it shows that the faster acceleration of parcels leads from the surface to the lower parts. The magnitude of the upwind is significant for the strength of a storm. . When we see the daytime heating starting to work, our CAPE value will increase significantly. A range greater than 1500 J/Kg is shown, even up to over 2000 J/Kg, which indicates a very unstable and strong atmosphere.
3. We have instability, so let’s look at shear forces. Here, we find that the better cutting corridor is south of Application around W.VA, VA and south PA. Elsewhere it suffices with more than ~15-20 knots, which really anything over 20 knots is probably more than enough to support serious updates and that is the case. now.
We have trigger, instability and clipping. Once we take it together, we have an atmosphere capable of producing today’s intense storms that will appear as discrete cells, which will grow into clusters (multiple). cells), and then ends with arc echoes and hissing lines. Here we see the latest short-term convection (HRRR) permitting model showing how this should play out. The storms are currently moving north, then as the cold front moves east we see storms shooting from the higher terrain of C. PA into the VA (also lifting the terrain), then freezing up and moving east through the evening and into tonight from the VA and the Carolinas, northeast.
Hazards from these storms will primarily include gusts above 50 mph and hail of up to 1” – 1.5” as we see from both our forecasted maximum gust potential. HRRR and useful 4×4 SWISS model found This, where you can see the hail sizes we might consider for an area or region. Strong winds, while possible with discrete cells, will particularly come from gusty/resonant arcs. Heavy rain will also occur in conjunction with multi-cell storms, where urbanized flash flooding is possible due to high PWAT and areas of saturation from previous rainfall throughout the region. Cyclones are certainly possible with superlayers and/or arc echoes with sufficiently low shear and boundary collisions that can enhance shear at the surface. If anything, the most favorable regions for the latter are likely to be in southeastern PA, Delmarva and S.NJ
With severe thunderstorm warnings posted across NY, PA, and NJ, residents in these locations and throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast should be prepared, aware of the situation, and Backup plan for safety!
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands