Our attention to the core of the summer heat will be directed to the Deep South and Southeast states starting next week. The most notable true heatwave of our season also looks very likely, especially considering the close consensus among all major pools including EPS, GEFS, and GEPS.
Over the next few days we should see a correction pattern to the lower 48. Our stagnant upper low in the Northeast is finally erupting eastward and breaking, ending the puffing. harmful and stale Canadian wildfires for the aforementioned Northeast states. Next, the higher-level ridge in the northern Plains and southwestern Canada provinces broke and moved westward, forming a rex (high above low) mass over the northeastern Pacific. This establishes a cut trench in southwestern California. Overall, this weekend to early next week forms a semi-tropical pattern with average winds generally moving from west to east.
Then we begin to see a strong ridge, extending across Mexico, winding and shifting northwards slowly. Furthermore, to find that a predicted ridge is more than 2 standard deviations from the 20-year mean verbatim tells us that we will have to deal with extreme temperatures, the warning criteria for heat and health concerns throughout the region.
As EPS shows this, GEPS and GEFS also show 588+ dm ridges. Typically, we tend to classify thermal ridges if the average elevation reaches and exceeds 588 decameters. In this case, we see it clearly in all populations. When that trench formed off the coast of California, it allowed the ridge to essentially “pump up” in response to and intensify the cyclone.
What’s more, some seasonal forecasters tend to consider the summer outlook where relatively long-term droughts and very dry soils are possible. Why? Simply put, this creates a positive feedback system. Dry soil is not useful for plants and any kind of vegetation. This allows for enhanced evaporation, so that more solar radiation is absorbed by the surface and not by vegetation, creating a much easier “path” for the formation. high pressure and increased subsidence (air sinking). Where is our most notable area for arid conditions? Right on the Plains and Deep South thanks to daily drought tracking data found This. This is not necessarily coincidental as the thermal band aligns with drought conditions.
Next week, keep an eye on how the daily temperature anomalies increase each day as temperatures will be 5-15 degrees Celsius above average and keep in mind that this is the average value of the EPS. is smoothed so technically it doesn’t capture the complete intensity.
Another way to visualize this is to see where the highest probability of a temperature of 90*F or higher will occur. Here, the EPS shows the 90s target for Texas and the Gulf states at a 95-99% confidence level. That’s remarkably high at this range. So we’ll see the first true heatwave across the Deep South starting next week. Also, even though the temperature exceeds 90, don’t forget that the heat index when combined with the inability to evaporate sweat from the body due to the higher dew point (humidity) can go up to 100.
If you live in this general area at this time, I would take precautions to make sure you avoid minimal risk. Make sure the A/C devices are in place and working, and be proactive in any way possible such as knowing where local cooling centers may be located. We’ll be monitoring and reporting on this next week, so stay tuned.
About the author
Armando Salvador
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands
