Let’s analyze three main groups: EPS, GEPS and GEFS. These animations last until the end of the month. Notice anything different between all three? The correct answer would be no really, no. We have a strong consensus on the evolution of the elevation pattern as we move into August, where the average subtropical ridge is nearly stationary over the SW desert because the majority of the elevations are on the main side. weak in the west and below mean height extending into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions.
How this translates to the surface is how you imagine it; Above-average temperatures are common from the Northwest to the Deep South while moderate to below-average temperatures continue to persist throughout the upper Midwest, into the Southeast and into the Northeast.
With such a pattern, not only will we continue to see unrelenting heat and a prolonged heatwave continue to rage in the Southwest Desert with dangerous heat continuing to spread into the Deep South, This means there will be no shortage of activity in the Ohio Valley and Northeast. With a largely fixed cyclonic current over the Great Lakes, this will only allow turbulence and shortwaves to pass through as cold fronts on the guiding surface. We then see southerly currents continue to push moisture up the East Coast, bringing with it prolonged spells of rain and storms. This will lead to persistent flood settings and concerns that it is now completely saturated for a lot of areas across the Northeast. Note that the CFSv2 weeklys show an above-average wide band across the Midwest and into the Northeast signaling excitement, while to the West it is surprisingly dry and continues to do so for the rest of the day. near future.
Regarding the temperature, for reference, we can see how durable it is by analyzing the probability of reaching at least 90*F or more. This has no effect on humidity, which means heat indices will be even higher, but it does show where the heat center will continue to remain as it oscillates across the deep South and Southwest.
There are some indications that this pattern will change on its own and “reform” in August, and may also change due to other external atmospheric agents (i.e. hurricane return curvature). could shake up the entire downstream pattern, which is a plausible scenario); but in the meantime, we’ll continue with the same weather headlines as we head into July. At least the tropics are quiet for now.
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands