As we look ahead today, especially this afternoon and tonight, we see a quasi-classical setup for severe, strong thunderstorms including a low-pressure system on the surface. face with a dry line (gradually bulging) and a warm area. Below, here is an outline that the setting covered by surface dew points exceeds 65* F. In particular, it will take place during that eclipse, where we will see severe extreme weather hazards. most important.
While we have a “trigger” for surface thunderstorms, we also have a shortwave track (outlined below) that will pass through this area enhancing vertical motion for additional support. for today’s inclement weather. This short wave will help speed lapse with overhead cooling as it passes, then exacerbate the destabilizing boundary layer as moisture accumulates northward (higher dew points) with the sun’s penetration and we cause instability to increase rapidly.
We see that unique developments here over the next few hours lead to peak temperatures in the early afternoon. A 2000 j/kg surge of CAPE struck northeast of the dry bulge and south of the warm front, where surface convergence and elevation created a very favorable environment for storms to shoot off the dry line and strengthens quickly with abundant CAPE.
For now, what makes this setup so powerful and the growth of intense supercells is a belt with a cutting speed of more than 50 knots that will spread across the region from KS to Ark-La -Tex today. Normally for supercell development we tend to see if we have large effective shear forces (up to 500mb surface) over 25 knots to help separate upwinds from downwinds and create rotating headwinds (which can eventually create a tornado). We got it right here, so it’s for this reason, coupled with strong CAPE, that today makes for such a menacing setup.
Today’s hazards would include heavy hail (the size of a baseball and larger!), strong gusts of wind with speeds over 60 mph or more, and a few tornadoes with stronger superclasses. Below, we see a large area of 3”+ hail potential and surprisingly it covers a large area from the panhandle TX and OK as well as SW KS, through OK and the west. north central TX.
As we see the storms break out this afternoon and strengthen quickly, they should be able to generate violent gusts and stay tuned for the second half of the animation. Notice how it reveals a pattern of straight lines from the NE TX into the AR/MS/LA area? What this is showing is a “derecho”, which is a widespread medium-scale complex consisting of a long-lived wind event with rapidly moving thunderstorms. We tend to see these the most during the months of May through July and it’s set to grow tonight and tonight!
So today, the storm is forecast to make landfall this afternoon between 3 and 4 p.m. CST across the panhandle of TX/OK, then head southeast this afternoon and tonight, where we’ll probably see intense supercells growing. Then later this evening we will see the storms merge into a cluster, and this is where we can see the derecho grow and sustain itself in the environment it is in.
If you reside in this area, please take the necessary precautions and prepare for the very favorable environment presently across the Delta and into the South! Always have a backup plan, as it should be drawn up by this afternoon, and listen to your local offices and/or broadcast local news for updates and stay tuned to stay informed. about the weather!
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands