Ah yes, nothing screams “SPRING” quite like a classic upgraded ridge that turns to Greenland and Hudson Bay in the spring months after the previous winter! We find with strong support from populations that the band extends across Canada from Greenland, which together with the British Columbia ice sheet to the Pacific Northwest produce below-average elevations across the eastern Rockies of the United States. Ky.

Let’s put this block into perspective, as it will actually be quite unusual this time of year! Take the NAO and all these graphically displayed digital weather models, believe it or not but they’ve underestimated how big this block is. We’re actually going to see, what’s happening now, a ridge that intercepts over 5 standard deviations! Below this graphic is the trend of the EPS forecast using all members (51). What is quite remarkable is the complete miss and underestimation of the block!

Now, perhaps it shouldn’t be too surprising to see this development, especially after a sudden stratospheric warming event from February (remember that?!), which the study suggests. We see “bleeding” as a result weeks and even more than a month after a major warming event persists in the troposphere. This high-latitude blocking is certainly not a coincidence and is related to that event.

Ultimately, this means common below-average temperatures above 48 degrees lower as we head into early May, and with that a pattern of activity, especially in the eastern part of the Midwest. . For example, the weekly CFS shows moderate to above average rainfall for areas essentially east of the Rockies and especially the East Coast, which makes sense given the persistent predicament. persistent. This appears to have some lasting strength, with a more transient pattern looking to hold as we get closer to early mid-May. So for now, if you’re expecting more summer-like previews, then you’ll have to wait because that’s definitely going to get in the way for the time being, but actual summer isn’t there anymore. further behind!

About the author

Armando Salvador

Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands