While severe summer threats aren’t unusual, if you’re someone who regularly checks the SPC Convection Outlook, you might notice something odd about the day’s severe weather outlook. now.
The identified risk areas are concentrated in the South/Southeastern United States. This is rare for a summer day.
Why is it rare? Typically during the summer months, the jet stream has lifted far north. It is therefore unusual for this part of the country to see a system strong enough to provoke organized extreme weather. Yes, it’s normal for random summer pop-ups to get inclement sometimes, but organized inclement weather isn’t.
As Armando mentioned in his blog yesterday, a fixed boundary is enclosed around this area.
As the day goes on, a series of impulses will move along this boundary. Each of these will have the potential to trigger several different spells of extreme weather. As you can imagine, today’s threats and times are complex.
If we look at the 12Z sound observed from Jackson, MS, we can tell what factors are currently in play and what still needs a bit of work before a serious threat emerges. develop.
- Lower levels are currently capped. We would need heat/humidity flows during the day to help erode this cap and allow storms to form on the surface.
- There is a lot of instability and a high error rate that exists above the limit. The storm has enough energy to hit this morning, but will intensify with hail as the main threat.
- Cutting is enough to organize the storm. Wind profile was slightly unidirectional this morning at lower levels, but will likely change enough as the day goes on to support a tornado threat.
- Plenty of dry air is available overhead. Also, the wind in this layer is more than 50 kts. These two factors should lead to a wind threat of significant damage later today.
Summary of possible threats: All hazards are possible today, especially in the afternoon and evening.
Heavy hail is possible, especially further west over East Texas and into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
A wind threat of significant damage is expected to develop. Occasionally, storms will have winds in excess of 80 mph, especially in the Deep South.
Tornadoes can also occur. A few can be strong, especially from southern Alabama to southwestern Georgia.
As mentioned earlier in the blog, today’s timings are a bit messy due to the many rounds expected.
The storm is expected to start shooting and quickly turn severe over the next few hours. However, if you encounter a storm this morning, don’t let your guard down. Many rounds will take place from early morning until late at night.
- Stay aware of the weather today. Multiple storms are expected – this is not a one-time event.
- Charge your device and make sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts. Your main source should be a NOAA weather station with battery backup. Wireless emergency alerts should be enabled on your phone. Local news station weather apps issue warnings and your local meteorologists will broadcast live on TV if the situation permits.
- Make sure your safe space is ready for use and that your family is familiar with your shelter plan.
- If you plan to go out today, know where you can take shelter along your route if the need arises.
- I strongly recommend that, when considering the threat of strong winds, you should take shelter during a severe thunderstorm warning like a tornado warning. If winds above 80 mph occur, they will have the potential to cause significant damage.
- Alert your friends, alert your family. If you know anyone in this area, make sure they are aware of today’s threat. Spread awareness so no one is caught off guard.
Keep an eye on your local NWS office and local broadcast meteorologists throughout the day. They will keep you updated on developments. Be safe!
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX