Today, along a near-permanent boundary across TX’s panhandle extending into central parts of the state, we’ll see the focus of severe thunderstorms – especially clusters of thunderstorms. and separate supercells under current favorable environmental conditions. From current analysis through Dupage University we can clearly see our position ahead.
When we have synaptic forces from both surface (front) and overhead (500mb) with small perturbations (orange/yellow here is positive eddy) in the flow, we get a medium allows enhanced vertical movement. In most cases it is usually too much forcing (i.e. very strong short waves with different quadrant jet trails located adjacent to each other over the area) resulting in messy convection with downward streams have advantages. Here it’s more subtle so we can expect separate super cells and premium growth this afternoon and tonight.
Now when we look at the extreme weather parameters given, we have analyzed the “big picture” knowing that we have enough impact force, now let’s see with heating daytime and vertical wind shear. With cleanup using satellites visible all over TX, instability will increase throughout the day into the afternoon. Not coincidentally, notice how much below MUCAPE suddenly strengthened this afternoon. So we have hurricanes that are going to affect that and their gas is billowing. Eventually, longitudinal shear would be enough (20–30 knots) to separate upstreams from downstream, allowing supercells to develop closest to the front and clusters to grow on a large scale. As the storm develops, the 0-4km vector by looking at the wind shear parameters shows the trajectory towards the southeast.
Putting it all together, we see that at 2-3pm CST, the storm blew east of NM and spread into the panhandle. Separate cells initially form while multicellular clumps then predominate late this afternoon and predominate in the evening. The main hazards today would be gusts of more than 50 mph and large golf balls or larger sized hail – especially with separate supercells. There is also the risk of an isolated tornado with some of these clusters or supercells, especially closest to the front.
Given our unique potential hail size parameter via CONUS swiss modelwe can see with the naked eye transparent from afternoon to evening, pink and purple suddenly becoming clear northward towards Abilene, Lubbock and Forth on the north/northwest delineation hail dimensions will over 2”!
Finally, notice as we see our clusters grow, wind gusts of 55 – 60 mph due to evaporating rain-cooled air create the classic “inverted V” sound in playback. negative qua tropical delicacies . When this is obvious, this implies that the sub-cloud has a relatively large depression, or dry air level, which, when rain falls past this point, evaporates. Evaporation is a cooling process (i.e. heat is removed from the atmosphere to cool the parcels) and the air is denser under gravity directed towards the surface. So whenever you see this, that’s how you know strong winds, if not severe, are a threat.
As always, when there is a possibility of severe weather, always have an emergency kit, a backup plan, and how to receive alerts so you can keep yourself safe!