We first define what the overhead jet trail looks like to see if we can get any help from the overhead jet trail. Originally, we would certainly do as the area outlined – the TN River, part of the Ohio Valley, and the MS River Valley – appear to be in an area of unsettled weather including heavy rainfall. With the right rear quadrant stacked, this now leads to an enhancement of surface processes leading to mass evacuations.
At 500mb let’s check if we have enough brute force or anything for that matter. We certainly do so because this generalized forcing appears in the form of differential eddy current advance, with short waves helping to focus areas of heavy rain and/or thunderstorms.
Test to see our environment in terms of humidity and we are not progress coming from the open bay, so we currently have a lot of energy in the form of latent heat stored in humidity. We also find that the environment is already quite saturated with PWAT above 1” in much of the South and Southeast.
Now, what will actually allow the heavy rainfall to be exacerbated is the fact that this shortwave and the upper support from the jet trail operate parallel to the warm front on the surface. We have all the ingredients there to support the rainfall over these areas. What I want to show now is how can we train convection. When our shear force (deep shear to the right) is parallel to the front feature of interest, this will trigger a “rebuild” as storm clusters can continuously propagate and form due to the nature of the storm. the substance moves slowly and adds lift from its surroundings as net motion is essentially “cancelled” since the shear vector is oriented in the same direction as the front face (this again creates conceptual scale lift). shouted).
So, combining all these favorable atmospheric components (elevation + humidity + instability) we get heavy rainfall Friday through Saturday across these areas, where may have a general rainfall of 1 – 3” / 2-4” and local if not more isolated that there are some areas of slightly higher visibility.
If any residents in urbanized areas are prone to flooding and/or are prone to flooding on poor drainage, watch out for this weather tomorrow.
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands