We will enter a general, relatively “quiet” pattern as we enter the last week of May before the holiday weekend. Thanks to a wide ridge that will extend over much of the eastern United States of the Rockies, this will help prevent any large-scale or noticeable outbreaks of severe weather; however, that doesn’t mean some extreme weather events can’t happen, it’s just more local/regional based and likely distributed towards the High Plains.
Across Florida, however, it’s going to be a wet week ahead and especially before Memorial Day when we see a depression forming across the peninsula.
A cold front will hit Florida tomorrow and will essentially shut down for a few days next week. This feature will become the catalyst for daily showers, storms, and some low-pressure areas to develop with the possibility of something forming next weekend a little stronger. Using 10m winds, you can see a constant stream on the shore, increasing atmospheric humidity creating conditions for heavy rain and gusts, along with instability that forms during the day with enough solar radiation.
Every day, we see daily showers and thunderstorms with more noticeable bursts of moisture along that stalled boundary increasing precipitation. The focus seems to be more on the eastern parts along the peninsula, especially on the mainland. Then, over the weekend, we’ll have to watch for a stronger low-pressure center that could bring more widespread rainfall. In this regard, we will likely have to deal with local flash flood concerns every day.
To get an idea of what we’re looking at, the heaviest axis seems to be confined primarily through inland areas and toward I-95 zones up and down the east coast of Florida. While the ECM’s verbatim hiring pattern shows a “bull’s eye” near Jacksonville, suggesting a growing potential for a stronger developing low somewhere off the Southeast coast by the end of next week as we will be closely monitoring the possibility of tropical features; however, that is only a theoretical possibility.
Regardless, a wet week is ahead for sunny states. All things considered, this rainfall would actually benefit much of the state given the current drought they are experiencing.
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands