After another weekend of positive weather, any inclement weather has turned and a much drier air mass is now underway over the eastern half of the United States.
Except for the Northeast and the Great Lakes where showers and snowfall persist, clear, quiet conditions prevail as high pressure gradually re-forms.
But don’t let the momentary calm fool you. Another active phase is not far away. More widespread activity will begin to gradually increase as early as tomorrow in the High Plains, then turn eastward and last through at least Friday.
A trough currently moving inland in the Pacific Northwest will move eastward tomorrow, eventually developing into a powerful storm.
As we can see using the synoptic map, the flow around a ridge to the east will allow moisture to be pulled northward before the trench enters. Humidity could be low (Tuesday) at first, making the severe threat a bit more isolated on the Plateau. However, it will increase in extent to the east as the low surface forms and deepens.
Through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, the threat is expected to become stronger/slightly more widespread – first in the Central Plains (Wednesday), then the Central South Plains/ South (Thursday) and finally in Lower Mississippi River (Friday).
What dangers are we expecting?
ABOVE TuesdayWith high CAPE numbers and high error rates, large hail can be a major threat.
There is also a large amount of dry air in the middle layer, although the wind on this level is not too impressive. Some damaging strong winds are possible with stronger storms.
Wednesday looks similar with the same high CAPE, steep drift rate and medium dry air. However, winds in this class have increased slightly from the previous day, so damaging winds may be a bit more common than Tuesday.
As for Thursday and Friday – for now, it looks to be mostly hail/wind again. However, we’re still a few days away from those possible events and are refining our forecast as high-resolution models come out. We will re-register on these days a little later in the week.
- A slow-moving trench will create conditions for possible severe weather for several days this week, with different areas “in sight” each day.
- Keep an eye on the forecast as the forecast for the second half of the week still has some time to develop.
- Make sure you’re ready to receive alerts (at least 2 trusted sources) and that you have a shelter plan ready to use if needed.
- Consciousness spreads. If you have family or friends in any of the target areas this week, make sure they know about the possibility of severe weather so they can prepare.
We’ll keep you updated on this forecast as it develops over the week!
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX