After an extremely busy start to the week, the weather is much calmer. However, don’t expect it to last.
If there’s one thing for sure about spring, it can be a tumultuous season. Humidity is pulled north to encounter a stream of fresh cold air, which often results in inclement weather. Yes, we are facing the possibility of another serious multi-day threat next week.
As with the last threat, there are still many unknowns about this, but at least we can recognize the pattern.
Like the previous threat, a deep trough will “come ashore” at the beginning of the week. Late Tuesday, it reached the southern Plains states, where it met moisture being pulled northward from the Gulf.
Of course there are differences between the models since we are still about 4 days away, but both GFS and ECMWF identified a diffuse area showing rising air over central Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This is the area to watch for Tuesday.
The patterns diverged several steps into Wednesday in that the ECMWF digs deeper than the GFS and identifies slightly different positions, but the premise is the same. The trough becomes negatively inclined, indicating a strong possibility of severe weather.
Thursday’s potential was even less clear as models varied more, however, the SPC did note the possibility of severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic.
There are many questions about the quality of the humidity available (dew point at low humidity or above 60?), the degree of north of the humidity and the storm regime, as this is normal for this far away. with event. These issues will become more apparent on Monday.
For now, just be aware that the period from Tuesday to Thursday next week poses a serious threat.
We’ll revisit this thread on Tuesday morning to see how all of our components have come together for a scheduled start Tuesday night.