Memorial Day weekend is often considered the official start of summer. Many schools are closed, the weather is generally turning into a warm summer, and an extra day off from work is just an opportunity for celebrations that last all weekend. Since many of these celebrations take place outdoors, the weather has the potential to decide or disrupt the Memorial Day weekend.
What does the forecast hold for our long weekend? Let’s check it out!
This is going to be a weekend of the “haves” and the “haves”.
Our critical weather loop above makes it clear who would be in the “none” category.
- The coastal lowlands of the Southeast will keep conditions wet, windy and cooler than average. Flash flooding can become a real concern, especially in the Carolinas, when heavy rains last for days. Besides, rough seas and offshore currents can occur when this low eddy reaches shore, making any sailing or swimming plans impossible.
- Moisture entering the High Plains will set the stage for a severe thunderstorm risk. Hail and strong winds will be the main threats, but a tornado or two is possible.
- The Northwest/Great Basin will remain soggy due to the unusually low and high humidity in the upper floors covering the area. Due to the slow nature of the low humidity and pre-existing anomalies, some flash floods may occur.
As far as “yes” goes:
- As our Rex Block model matured, ripples in the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast regions were evident since there was no turbulent weather in the loop above. Above-average temperatures and sunny days will reign here.
Your high temperature snapshot on Saturday:
Unfortunately for ours, the pattern will remain the same for Sunday as our Rex Block dominates the flow.
- The coastal lowlands will continue to flood the Southeast with rain, wind, the possibility of flash floods and less than ideal beach conditions.
- High Plains will have a different, slightly more limited shot in inclement weather. Threats will remain the same as Saturday: damaging winds and hail, with a non-zero tornado chance.
- As long as the Rex Block persists in the Eastern US, the higher level lows in the inner Northwest/Great Basin will remain there. Showers and storms again are possible as well as isolated flash floods.
I mentioned that the Rex Block will stay firmly in place, so it stands to reason that the beautiful weather thanks to the block’s ledge will also last. Another beautiful day awaits the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast.
Your high-temperature snapshot on Sunday:
I’m starting to sound like a broken record here, but I fear the same could happen on Monday.
- The Rex Block still exists in the Eastern United States. The Southeast remains soggy while the northern part of the Eastern US remains dry and warm.
- The upper western low will continue to roam inland to the west, causing showers and storms as moisture continues northward into the area.
- Some severe weather is still possible across the High Plains, but reliability is less than Saturday and Sunday at this time.
Your high temperature snapshot for Monday:
The gist of this weekend’s holiday forecast is this: if you have bad weather on Saturday, predict that it will be relatively bad all day long over the weekend. If you’re lucky enough to be affected by the rough part of this nasty mass, you’ll keep your great weather intact for the whole weekend.
Our block of Rex will slowly begin to unravel by the middle of next week. As for what lies ahead, we’ll take a look at that when we get back on Tuesday.
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX