The 94L investment is still more or less as we leave it on Friday: a wave of openings is expected to slowly hold over the next few days.

In fact, it solidified some. Recent missions conducted by Hurricane Hunters have shown that tropical storm winds exist in this wave, although mainly just north of it.

As of today, the 94L has struggled with maintaining any convection achieved from the intraday maximum to the intraday minimum.

Yesterday:

Today:

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The difference is quite obvious. Today’s 94L is capable of much deeper convection firing, although we can note that it is still long and unorganized.

So what will the 94L need to do to achieve TC status?

  • It would need to break away from the ITCZ ​​by “turning around”, probably north.

If you check the last satellite image, you can see a convective bulge north of the wave. Maybe the 94L will try to break away from the ITCZ ​​here overnight as we hit the maximum for the day.

  • Then it will need to close its circulation.

However, a number of things can slow down the progression to TC.

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94L lies near a fairly tight gradient of SSTs. While the water it sits on is technically warm enough to fuel the TC, the water northeast of it is a bit cooler.

94L has crossed this boundary since it came out of Africa. Part of its wide circulation can pass through cooler water and mix it in, making it harder for deep convection to burn.

Most models don’t show the 94L pulling its action together until it gets a little closer to the Caribbean, where an abundance of warm water awaits it.

Another issue is potential land interactions.

The 94L has gone a mostly Western way for a while. It will need to back itself a little north or go more northwest to avoid crashing into South America. This adjustment of course is possible when the 94L splits from the ITCZ.

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Assuming it rises and has enough latitude to avoid much of South America, it will still have to deal with a tall building blocking the interior. This leaves the turbulence zone nowhere to be found but to the west, potentially gliding along the northern periphery of mainland South America.

While it won’t strengthen as much as if it were in the ocean, if most of the circulation is still above warm water, it could still strengthen a bit.

Due to the blocking highs forcing disruption/ultimately west of TC, this is not likely to affect us here in the US.

Less than the Antilles – the arc of islands located where the Caribbean meets the Atlantic Ocean – along with the coasts of Guyana and Venezuela are probably the first to be impacted.

Remember that the 94L is still unclassified. However, whether or not it is upgraded to a tropical depression in the next 24 hours, the effects will remain the same.

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Heavy rain along the coast/on the southern islands along with strong gusts of wind. According to the findings of the Storm Hunter mission, stronger winds are currently located north of the disturbance. Where that tip passes will likely see stronger winds – most likely the southern islands.

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The guide kept the 94L weak as it glided along the northern periphery of South America. Once it wipes out the land mass, it may have a chance to strengthen before impacting Central America. But again, this all depends on the 94L closing a week relatively early.

Stay up to date on the 94L plus the wave behind it and the area of ​​interest in the Bay Area by checking our blogs and Twitter feed!

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