HomeUncategorizedHedging Closer To June: Pattern Outlook Heading Deep Into May

Hedging Closer To June: Pattern Outlook Heading Deep Into May

We’ll be tackling the rather unusual ridge across North America starting this weekend and early next week, as Meghan mentioned in her blog from earlier this week. A cyclone of nearly 4 standard deviations would essentially be “cut off” and move backward over the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada. This will result in daily record highs tomorrow and Monday for the inland West and Pacific Northwest with temperatures reaching and exceeding only 90 degrees; however, this upper air pattern doesn’t necessarily stagnate leading to the infamous summer “heat dome” we’ve grown accustomed to over the past few summers.

Moving into next week and into the last week of May, we should see a more stable upper air pattern without extremes. For instance, let’s roll out Canadian harmonies with effect next weekend and the start of the informal summer gathering near Memorial Day. What we see is the omega Pacific ridge from early next week (leading to some new daily record temperatures to come), breaking and receding to the west. Subtropical currents with mostly positive elevations through the Intermountain West, Pacific NW and Rockies are largely dominant while as a result below mean elevation, imposing downstream through southeastern Canada and into the Northeast. Height actively extends west Atlantic.

However, is this supported and with what confidence can you ask? Let’s see the two graphics below with a mixture of phase 7 500mb at the top and hovmoller at the bottom showing where our MJO is (again, areas of divergence and convergence are propagating through ocean basins using temporal longitude imaging) waves are predicted to move. I’ve outlined the period coming up in hovmoller where our wave of MJOs will shift, and that’s happening in the Western Hemisphere and especially the Western Pacific. Notice how it matches stage 7, after moving through stage 6. It’s remarkable how the Nina-based phase 7 mix contrasts with the groups, isn’t it? It provides a “baseline” for what the model might look like without looking at numerical weather predictions, and now confidence is pretty much increased with aggregations that show this. Positive elevation in western NA, below mean elevation in east.

In terms of the 2m temperature anomaly, it is not surprising that we find the “core” of above-average temperatures located in our upper band with the outer Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, respectively. . Farther east, we might see a little more near-average to sub-average in the deep south as in these areas there will be a tendency to trough downstream of the upstream ridge. West. Further east, we will see a moderate to possibly higher range due to the influence of the western ridge.

Finally, in terms of aggregate precipitation anomalies, we will see the main focal center through the deep south in the form of convection, shortwave troughs, and downstream instability thanks to ripple lines as shown above. said above. Farther east, it looks drier, although with a northwesterly high flow through the Northeast we could have some MCS/MCV type action and some inclement weather setups with it. rain.

We’ll cover more of what we can expect over Memorial Day Weekend as we get closer, but for now we’re seeing solid consensus for this model to prevail as we get closer. We move into May.

About the author

Armando Salvador

Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands


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