In essence, the forward moving height pattern will be quite stagnant; that is, the same generalized features that have appeared more or less in the same locations in the region actually show no signs of decommissioning. For instance, EPS, along with GEFS and GEPS, has remarkable consistency in terms of the long-term persistence of heat peaks across the lower southern states of the United States. From a climate standpoint, verbatim EPS we have. dealing with a ridge would be more than 1.5 standard deviations, so we’re dealing with pretty persistent hot days from NM to LA.
If we look only at the next 1-2 weeks, the epicenter of the warmest temperatures persists in the Deep South and into the Southwest states where anomalous temperatures exceed anywhere from 5 to 5. 10 degrees above normal. The animation below will expire at the beginning of July!
Compare the probability that the surface temperature will be at least 90*F and 100*F. A wide range of high to very high confidence relative to 90*F from AZ to LA essentially from today through the last week of June. In contrast to the 100*F probability, we find that it is mostly confined to the south of AZ, NM, and TX as these areas will receive the “burden” of “dry” heat.
The problem is that the location of the high pressure on the surface and the shortwave troughs moving from the West into the Plains, then passing through the United States, allows for the continuous movement of moisture from the Gulf as shown above. below. It is the potential heat through humidity from the Gulf that will put the heat indices in the triple digits and somewhat make this a dangerous scenario for heat-related illnesses and concerns. Running GFS for example until close to July 4 shows heat readings consistently exceeding 100*F.
There are some indications that as we enter the week of July 4, the pattern will begin to break and change again, causing the thermal band to move backwards and weaken to some extent. That’s a bit far away, though, and most importantly, people living in these states in the Southern Plains and Deep South will have to remain aware of heat-sensitive health issues. Stay hydrated and cool! You really have no idea how quickly dehydration can happen! Please check especially the elderly!
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands