Across the Southern Plains – mainly between I-25 (running from NM to WY) and I-35 (running from TX up through OK to KS), we will be dealing with a somewhat similar pattern each day until Saturday. We first define aloft at 500mb, where it is marked. This area is located downstream of the leeches (i.e. troughs in the Rockies leeches), where small energetics are followed by a more notable shortwave propagating through the TX panhandle tomorrow, will allow the force to go up.
At 850mb, notice the only average low level traffic paying attention to the Plains. Notice how we see the streamlined lines in the orbit from SE to NW? Not only does this promote humidity (well suited for the persistent 50s and 60s dew point range from TX to the Dakotas), but now also causes instability due to humidity. The reason for this outflow is that a ridge will circulate through the Great Lakes, where a clockwise flow allows this to happen with the low being cut across the Southeast exacerbating the flow into the Gulf. . Then from there the parcels cross the Gulf and we end up right at the Plains!
As we’ve covered the humidity aspect, it’s no coincidence that the instability is nearly identical to today’s and tomorrow’s concentrated dew point band across west TX, east NM and up east CO and WY.
With moderate buoyancy (SBCAPE > 800-1000 J/kg), especially tomorrow east of NM and the TX panhandle with the aforementioned shortwaves, daytime temperatures and belts sufficient for layering favorable depth (~20 knots should suffice, we tend to look at the 25 – 40 range + knots that support super cells and maintain updates), we’ll see this climax indicates that some isolated supercells today become more scattered tomorrow and again on Saturday.
Today, we expect some isolated superlayers across the NM east into the panhandle region of TX and OK with subdivisions likely introduced in the direction of the shear force.
Then tomorrow, we’ll see more threats to distributed convection in the form of supercells and clusters that bring dangers including heavy hail, gusts above 50 mph and maybe even a few tornadoes. While not as strong as Friday, Saturday will also see similar hazards despite more favorable hail and winds.
While this shouldn’t be a shock, we are approaching June and that means extreme weather climate favors the Delta according to SPC Climatology page. A snapshot at the end of May shows this, before shifting west as we flip the calendar to June.
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands