I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we have another (potentially important) day of severe weather in the forecast for Tuesday.
No, this is not last Friday’s outlook. A similar setup targets the same general area that just experienced devastating extreme weather 4 days ago. Like Friday, we have two different “maximums” at which forecasters are certain that extreme weather will occur.
Let’s take a look at the first setup.
A large, deep trench is now inland and will move east over the next few days. Inside that trench, a short wave can be seen developing, surrounding the bottom of said trench and radiating in a northeasterly direction. This is the match.
Prior to the trench, rising southerly flows along the edge of a large high-pressure band would allow much higher-than-average temperatures over the region in question – and indeed, nearly all of the Eastern United States. Ky. This is our tinder.
So in the late afternoon we have a large warm area with dew point in the 60s. Humidity will be concentrated along the warm fronts in Iowa and Illinois and the dew point could rise to 70 degrees. . Further south and closer to the Gulf, dew points near the dry line covering the Plains states will also reach close to 70 degrees.
The event seems to be a bit of a two-way street. The northern part of the maximum risk could see severe weather emerge as early as the afternoon as the warm front lifts north. The southern part will remain limit during the day and are therefore at greatest risk in the evening and overnight hours when cold air finally arrives.
Using the Significant Cyclone Parameter map, two distinct waves are apparent. First, we see the afternoon/evening circle further north as a warm front sweeps over the area. Then, after dark, we see the southern threat materialize.
As you can guess from the map above, tornadoes are expected tomorrow. Some of these can be intense and long-term follow-up. Unfortunately, if any tornadoes occur in the defined southern region, they will occur in the dark and while some people are asleep, making them even more dangerous.
Strong winds and heavy hail are also possible tomorrow.
I usually don’t emphasize the tornado threat over more widespread hazards like damaging winds, but I Actually want to emphasize tomorrow:
We are facing outbreaks of deadly extreme weather. The event is targeting the same regions that are still reeling from the latest round. Also, strong, long-lasting tornadoes at night are a good possibility. It is extremely important to prepare ahead of time.
- There are many ways to receive alerts, including one that will wake you up if needed. Your primary source of alerts should be NOAA’s weather radio (which can be found on Amazon or at places like Walmart, Target, or sometimes even your local grocery store).
- Outdoor sirens are NOT reliable. They are not designed for indoor listening and may not even sound at times.
- Prepare your safe space ahead of time. This should be an inner room on the lowest floor of your house. Stock it with a helmet and hard-soled shoes. Put a battery-powered radio there so you can continue to receive information if the power goes out.
- Know your shelter plan and make sure your family knows about it too.
- Know which county you reside in, how to find it on the map and surrounding counties. Remember, warnings are issued by counties. Knowing the counties near you can help you know in advance whether you need to think about getting there safely.
- A mobile home/homemade is NOT a safe place to weather a tornado. If you reside in one place, you need to plan to shelter elsewhere. Don’t wait until there is a warning to leave the shelter. If a watch is released, it’s time to start working on your plans. The Red Cross keeps an up-to-date map of open shelters you can visit This.
- Stay aware of the weather and get updated forecasts throughout the day. Check your local NWS website or tune in to your local broadcast meteorologists on the news for your area specifics and extended coverage.
- Alert your friends, alert your family. If you know someone in the risk area, WARNING THEM. Raise awareness so no one can tell they were caught off guard. Emphasize the gravity of the situation and the need to be prepared.
Check back here in the morning for an updated look at what to expect inclement weather from Armando.