The forecast period for the local storm risk will weaken here mid-evening, with threats continuing to spread to 11 points further north and east.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in effect for the District of Columbia, DE, central/eastern MD, NJ, eastern PA, northern VA, and nearby Coastal Water until 11 p.m. EDT. Threats: strong winds, heavy hail, and a tornado or two. More information: https://t.co/QMmU4tCxt1 pic.twitter.com/28Zl3wjcnH
— NWS Hurricane Forecast Center (@NWSSPC) July 2, 2023
There is a 60% chance that a severe thunderstorm warning will be issued today. We need to watch the storms tonight and again late Monday for a 2 in 5 chance of them causing wind damage, hail or both. Temperatures and humidity will persist for the foreseeable future, with a heat index nearing 100 degrees today and possibly Monday.
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Through tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will ease a bit after mid-evening, when the chance of a major storm subsides, but some non-severe storms can persist into the early morning. The sweltering lows will range from the low to mid 70’s. Half an inch or more of rain is possible during a few heavy downpours, but the main threats we’re watching are gusts of wind. strong and heavy hail. Some showers and storms may pass in the hours before dawn.
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Monday tomorrow): Any early showers or storms should move quickly. The sky was partly sunny and quite bright as a cold front approached. This can add a bit of a storm surge from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. High temperatures from above 80 to below 90 will look like close to 100 degrees as the dew point approaches the sweltering mid 70s. The storms are likely to become more frequent Sunday and could bring gusts of 57 mph and large hail more than 1 inch in diameter.
Please note the weather on potentially inclement days and check back for updates.
In addition to the storms, west-southwest winds will blow near 30 mph Monday afternoon. Overnight, thunderstorms will slowly ease into late evening, with some thunderstorms possible near midnight. Low temperatures aim for the upper 60s to the low 70s.
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Severe storms are still possible in the next few days
Stay tuned for inclement weather in the afternoon and evening until at least Monday. We will have temperature, humidity, instability and “lift” of the atmosphere from an approaching cold front. These are the main ingredients for a severe storm. Overall, there is about a 40% chance of severe storms in the areas marked in yellow in the upper left map in the table below.
The first and most likely threat from these potentially severe storms through the end of the night is gusts of 57 mph – highlighted in yellow on the bottom panel below. right side of the map above. Large hail, highlighted in green in the lower left, is a minor threat to the wind, but we still need to take precautions.
Monday’s overall severe storm threat and chance of damaging winds remain similar to today, but the chance of large hail is slightly higher.
It is also not possible to rule out heavy rains with the potential to create patchy flash floods. (Remember: Turn around, don’t drown, if approaching a flooded road.) We’ll talk more about this tonight in our weekly Sunset Live Q&A chat. we. Tune in at 8:37 p.m
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