We now have a strong subtropical heat band across the southern US, issuing heat advisories over much of Texas and into New Mexico. However, notice in the EPS animation below how the ridge shifts westward, becoming nearly stationary in the desert to the southwest by “cutting” from the mean flow and lying in some deviations from normal from high altitude climates across the region as we move deeper this week.
A strong, strong subtropical depression in this area would exacerbate existing drought conditions across southern California, southern Nevada, western Arizona and as far as Utah.
To illustrate and describe such magnitude, I have chosen to show the probability that the temperature exceeds 100*F. Surprisingly, you will notice that a large percentage (>90%) of temperatures exceed this threshold. What makes this so extreme and dangerous, is Period And intensity Of these, the daily highs don’t drop below 90*F and the nighttime lows don’t even drop below 70-80*F! That’s what makes this dangerous and quite inhospitable as we head into this weekend, where heat intensifies in the southwest.
Here, we see a long animation extending into next week for most of the region, then expanding into California and parts of the Great Basin. Daily maximum temperatures consistently hit triple digits, and this includes major metropolitan areas like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson. Moreover, daily record highs will be challenged later this week especially all weekend and into early next week for the aforementioned sectors. This also applies to surrounding locations explicitly.
To see how extreme this heatwave will be, see the “Extreme Weather Index” (EWI) through the ECMWF (found This). The broad-scale indices here reach the maximum absolute percentile or a value of 1 where this indicates the extreme anomaly of the event from a climate point of view. This extends throughout California, Nevada and most of the four corner states.
Up to the present time, the National Weather Service issued numerous heat warnings and warnings from California to southern Arizona and surrounding areas.
Key takeaways from this upcoming event:
Basically, a prolonged heat wave will stabilize between now and the end of this week and into next week. Heat levels will reach “extremes”, as temperatures soar to triple digits this weekend and through the weekend where there won’t be any easing even into the night.
Please treat this very carefully, especially if you are sensitive to heat and be prepared to be proactive when it gets too stuffy. Stay indoors, try to stay cool for as long as possible, wear protective gear, stay hydrated(!), seek out cooling centers or know where they will be, and please check the elderly!
About the author
Armando Salvador
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands
