If you reside in the Midwest and feel like perhaps the weather has been much drier than average lately, you might be on to something.
Rainfall analysis shows that over the past 60 days, some rather severe deficits have developed – particularly in the heart of the “corn belt” region. Not surprisingly, drought conditions began to develop in Missouri and Iowa. Even parts of Illinois are unusually dry.
An unfavorable pattern has prevented the beginning of the growing season with much rain to nurture the emerging crops. Unfortunately, the upper air pattern looks to remain unfavorable next week as the blocking develops and persists.
The current pattern, similar to the Omega Block, will evolve into what is known as the Rex Block as the bands shift eastward over the weekend.
What is a Rex block? This type of blockage occurs when the high pressure lies directly north of the low pressure area. In fact, they will appear to be stacked. These blocks can be slow to clear. In general, they will last until one of the pressure centers decreases in intensity, allowing flow to start moving again.
Unfortunately, the moisture-deprived Corn Belt will remain affected by the high-pressure portion of the Rex Block.
Since high pressure often equates to subsidence and sunny days, the region is seeing (at least) another week of (at least) below-average rainfall. Not great news for farmers trying to keep their crops healthy.
In contrast, the Southeast, where the depression’s center is located, will remain wet and slightly cooler than average as this mass persists.
The location of the last low and the distance it travels west will determine who sees a soggy weekend.
Furthermore, as we get closer to the official start of hurricane season, there’s always the possibility that these coastal lows could attempt to create some tropical or subtropical calamity as they move. along the Gulf Stream.
While the NHC doesn’t have an official “tracking point” yet, it’s something to watch out for over the next few days. Tropical/subtropical development or not, the impacts will be the same: rain, light winds and the possibility of coastal flooding with prolonged inshore currents.
We’ll be looking at this — and the weekend forecast — in more depth over the next few days.
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX