With a wide long trough forming in the west, we will see the eddy advance ahead of this trench allowing enough force to travel downstream.

Moving on to our instability you can start to find out the main region of interest where the CAPE band is relatively narrow (the most unstable CAPE – the lowest 300mb of the troposphere and evaluate the instability) ) extends from TX to IL with a fairly strong range of 1400-2000 j/kg MUCAPE (average in this case). The southern half of this region is where we will likely see stronger convection due to a combination of extreme weather parameters and a lack of overall convection inhibition.

Next, do we have maintainable convection? We know the shear that organizes the storms (keeping the upstream and downflow separate), so when we look at the deep shear force we can see a band of more than 40-50 knots extending from TX to IL, delineates the contour of the trough so there is no shortage of it across the Plains and into the Midwest today.

Now, we know we have enough overhead divergence to help with mass evacuation, but what about the surface to help focus convection? When we analyze the dew points, we not only see enough humidity, but also a cold front rising southeast across the Plains and Midwest. This cold front will help spark thunderstorms and allow a mixture of discrete supercells and clusters to form this afternoon and into this evening.

So putting it all together, let’s take a look at the FV3-meso CAM simulation radar (convection-enabled model) from today to tonight. Across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex, the storms initially look set to break out this afternoon and develop into a cluster this evening, creating conditions for severe winds, large hail and lone tornadoes. Further north across the MO into the IL, while the threat of severity is slightly lower due to ongoing convection from this morning, although instability is expected during the day . With a cold front still helping to facilitate ascent and day-to-day warming, storms can still become severe and potentially damaging such as gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes as well. cannot be excluded.

As we continue to move deeper into the inclement weather season, please stay alert and take precautions! Please consult your local NWS office and/or local broadcaster to raise awareness of your local area so you can be safe and feel safe, or know what to do and when!

About the author

Armando Salvador

Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands