We begin to cross the Mid-Atlantic, specifically east of NC and possibly the extreme southeast of the VA, where the diffuse fixed boundary will stall, providing a “trigger” for thunderstorms developed this afternoon. We find valid this afternoon, the boundary spanning the VA/NC border extends westward into TN.
As we go through the morning and into the afternoon, we will get daytime heating through solar insulation and allow instability to form as we see MUCAPE billowing up pretty quickly in the afternoon. You can see more focus east of Fayetteville and Raleigh, with over 800 j/kg (definitely enough) happening with a few hundred joules heading to VA beach.
Along with the above, we typically want to see the dew point reach and/or exceed ~60*F. Throughout this area, there will be no shortage of anything with a lot of moisture that helps to re-emphasize the floating aspect.
So we have forced (though not quite strongly, but enough), a favorable thermodynamic configuration, and now we find to look for the kinetic component, or shear force. What we see below is a 0-4 km break at 30-35 knots which is showing support for the upflow organization leading to the potential for severe storms.
Putting it all together above shows that we can initially see discrete cells of the open area forming, before developing into clusters later in the day with hazards including heavy hail. due to elevated dry air and decent turbulence over the area developing hail and damaging wind gusts with an inverted “V profile” in the sound.
US Central Plains
Similar to the setup above, a weak forward boundary will lie parallel to the KS/NE boundary as a weak low surface develops tomorrow to meet through the OK panhandle throughout the morning and into the afternoon. To the south of this boundary, moisture “builds up” south of the front (in warm areas), with dew points also around 60 and 70 that are fairly easy to deal with the pressure drop and the advancement of moisture from the Gulf.
When we checked our thermodynamic and kinetic profiles, we found no shortage of MUCAPE at all (the most unstable CAPE – it was found by lifting each layer in the lowest 300 mb of the troposphere, and find the CAPE for each layer Then the layer registers the highest CAPE value as the one that generates “MUCAPE.” It is also useful in identifying possible locations of enhanced CAPE on any inversion because of the CAPE. can persist at the top even if there are no values in the boundary layer). Where you want to pay attention now is where the road is dry (notice the stark difference between dry and wet in the dew points on the OK/TX panhandle, near the intersection with the warm front running through the KS/OK contour. Combined, we have an overlap of favorable CAPE and shear, supporting the possibility for severe thunderstorm clusters to emerge and set to the southeast.
We see below the NAM graph showing the storms developing and freezing rapidly, although the storm regime is a bit more uncertain due to the less force on the side. However, that does not mean that any storm that produces or that the cluster develops cannot produce severe weather in which heavy hail and strong gusts are supported by the environment for KS south to the east. north. A few single tornadoes are also possible due to low-level directional shear in the vicinity of the southern front boundary.
If you reside in these common areas, of course make sure to keep up with the weather and consult local news stations and local NWS offices for important updates/information.
About the author
Armando Salvador
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands
