If we look at current radar, we’ll see a few hurricanes shooting out a dry line in the Plains states. Some then become severe as they transition to more favorable atmospheric conditions.
This is a serious threat that Armando wrote on his blog yesterday. This remains primarily a damaging hail/wind threat with a fault strength unfavorable for tornadoes at the moment.
This system and the associated surface low will continue to lift northeast tomorrow, presenting a new, somewhat stronger threat to the Mississippi River Valley region.
Setup can be a bit complicated as we have “duels” jet streams available.
A short wave moving through the southern jet stream may produce some morning showers and cloud cover over the area of concern. This may affect the expected daytime heating, or it may not be a problem.
By the afternoon, the northern jet stream entered the area in question. Higher level diffusion as depicted in the map above will encourage air to rise above the surface where humid and lot cloak ready to wait. The storm will begin to develop by mid-afternoon.
What dangers can we expect?
- The biggest thing that caught my eye here is the amount of CAPE available. This will create strong headwinds that, when combined with steep drift rates, will help facilitate VERY large hail formation.
- With dry air available to catch these headwinds, a damaging wind threat also looms.
- Directional clipping doesn’t look so great, especially in the lows – at least in terms of this sound. While a tornado or two is possible, it won’t be the biggest threat tomorrow.
About time: As mentioned, storms will begin to form around mid-afternoon and will quickly organize into a convection current.
The southerly line you see depicted here in the animation is the south perturbation line I mentioned earlier. This is not related to Saturday’s main serious threat and will mainly affect the Gulf Coast with heavy rain and perhaps some damaging winds.
- Major hurricanes are forecast to make landfall over much of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow.
- If you know anyone who lives in the area, make sure they are aware of the risk so they can be prepared. If you live in the area, make sure YOU are prepared.
- There are many ways to receive alerts with the main way being NOAA weather radio.
- Due to the potential for heavy hail, consider parking your car in a garage or under a sturdy shelter.
- Widespread tornadoes are not expected tomorrow, but the threat is not without. Be prepared to take shelter if there are warnings for your area.
- Monitor your local NWS and broadcast meteorologists’ forecasts for time changes and threats to your particular area.
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX