It could be cooler than average for much of the eastern part of the Rockies, but positive weather is still forecast today for some parts of the southern half of the eastern United States.
The areas mentioned are still the same as yesterday: East Texas and Peninsular Florida. They are separate events so I will address them separately below.
Satellites visible over Florida show us abundant sunshine, resulting in abundant surface temperatures.
As the loop continues, we can see cumulus clouds starting to emerge. In addition, we can see the Sea/Gulf wind boundary becoming more and more defined. These boundaries will be the trigger for today’s storms.
If you’ve lived or even spent a long time in Florida, you know what the daily cycle looks like.
Abundant sunlight in the morning heats up the humid air mass. In the afternoon, the sea breeze is strong and pushes inland. They provide a lifting mechanism and trigger the formation of several storms. On a normal summer day, a few strong storms are possible, but lacking better momentum, they don’t usually turn out to be a large-scale severe event.
Today, we have incentives to enable more coverage in extreme weather conditions.
The steep drift rates, dry air at high altitudes and stronger currents at high altitudes may allow some superlayers to form. These storms will likely bring heavy hail and damaging winds. Due to weak winds on lower levels and lack of directional shear, the tornado threat is fairly low, but not completely zero.
Since the main danger is heavy hail, take steps to protect your vehicle by parking under a shelter if that’s an option available to you.
Morning convection is escaping. As a trough pushes east, a dry line over the High Plains will also sharpen and move eastward, creating a focal point for storm surges.
The local dynamics provide a rather volatile atmosphere for the storms that can form to take advantage of.
- A slight limit is expected. This is where dry rope comes in with additional lift.
- Directional shear phenomenon, with surface winds receding from the SSE and changing direction with height. In addition, the shear rate is sufficient to organize hurricanes into superclasses. A few tornadoes are possible, especially early in the event with more discrete cells.
- Abundant CAPE and steep drift rates suggest strong headwinds and a strong possibility of hail.
- High-altitude dry air can create the threat of damaging winds, especially when storms gather into a curve later in the event.
So, as we can see, this is an event that can happen with all the dangers.
- There are many ways to receive alerts, including at least one that will wake you up.
- The event is expected to continue in a slightly weakened state into the evening/overnight, during which gusts of 75 mph or more are possible. Plan for shelter during severe thunderstorm warnings just as you would for tornado warnings.
- Several strong tornadoes are possible during the early stages of this event. Be prepared to take shelter if there is an alert for your area.
- Consciousness spreads. If you know anyone who lives in this area, warn them. Make sure they are as prepared as possible. Do your best to reduce the number of people caught off guard during these events!
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX