A fast-moving arc complex is currently pushing through IA and into south WI/north IL along a fixed boundary surrounding these states. Reports of wind damage with gusts of 55-75 mph have been reported across eastern NE and IA with property damage, along with heavy hail since last night. The complex will continue to move eastward, generating severe gusts of wind and heavy hail as it will be the long-lived MCS moving into MI tonight. This is important as the complex will be responsible for today’s severe weather for MO, KS and into OK tonight. How can you ask? That’s because the induced, rain-cooled boundary will become the catalyst for storms later today and into tonight.
As we proceed all day today, with dew points around the 60s and 70s across the entire Plains and Midwest, MCAPE values exceed 2500 j/kg with the help of afternoon heating. during the day, will happen. There will be no lack of instability when there is a combination of humidity and sufficient heat.
Although we will have the ingredients for the rapid formation of hurricanes, we need the “detonator”. As discussed, a boundary will emerge from that MCS. One can diagnose where that boundary might shift by analyzing the streamlining lines. In doing so, we can see where the surface convergence occurs as we know it when we have low degree convergence, which is all that is needed at times to allow the contrast to occur. save takes place. Outlined below, we actually see a boundary shifting south to NE through this afternoon and tonight and toward OK tonight.
Checking out our shear, we see that verbatim above 30 knots will extend across the Plains, so we can predict that any storm surge this afternoon will have likely to become severe and have super typhoon characteristics.
With verbatim favorable shear, sufficient storm organization for intense upwinds would allow the major severe hail to occur in conjunction with these severe thunderstorms. Here, we see that hail above 2” is likely to form on KS and MO. We also see gusts in excess of 55 mph, which appear to be occurring mainly east of KS into central MO with this area being the primary site of the majority of this event. This is not to say that neighboring areas are still unable to see gusty winds and hail.
With components in favor of extreme weather, storms will break out between 5-7pm CST initially east of KS and north/central MO. These storms are likely to become semi-sporadic before rapidly intensifying and solidifying tonight and turning into MCS overnight. The main hazards with this severe weather threat will undoubtedly be severe gusts of wind above 58 mph, along with heavy hail, which is not surprising considering the atmospheric compositions present. benefits in place.
With severe weather once again a threat to densely populated areas, please be prepared and take the necessary precautions so you can stay on track and warnings will begin this afternoon and tonight!
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands