We are about to experience an extremely dynamic night of extreme weather and are about to enter another extreme situation.
While the radar doesn’t look too threatening at the moment, the dividing line currently moving through both OK and TX has some strong to severe segments.
Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security by relative inactivity this morning. In fact, the SPC uses strong wording in their recently posted outlook: “An outbreak of severe hurricanes is expected between today and tonight. Large-scale severe storms are likely to occur over a very large area north-south from the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South to the Midwest, with favorable atmospheric compositions for all hazards. severe, including potentially severe/severe storms. “Prospects are this if you want to read it yourself.
Note, if you will, that they were serious storm outbreak, not tornado outbreak. This is important because it indicates that all forms of severe weather are possible – strong winds, heavy hail and yes, strong tornadoes.
I feel the need to emphasize the “all hazards” part because it seems that the damage that strong winds can cause is often overlooked because of the tornado threat. Tornadoes impact a relatively small area while damaging winds can impact a much larger area and deal equal damage.
But I digress. Let’s look at expectations.
By this afternoon, not too many hours away, volatility will increase and the limit in most of the risk zone will weaken.
The damaged cloud cover would allow daytime heating to increase the available CAPE to about ~2500 J/kg. This combined with the erosion cap will allow for the initiation of forward convection in the warm open area. Discrete cells can form, especially as far south as where there is better humidity.
The maximum speed in low-end jets will be set on the AR/W TN/NW MS/SE MO/SW KY zone. With the surface wind supported from the SSE and the wind ascending from above, this will result in large shear forces. The shear forces combined with the dew point in the upper 60s/lowest of the 70s, limited erosion, and early growth that facilitated discrete cellularity make this area a potential focal point for these areas. strong and prolonged tornado. The threat of large hail will also peak here.
As usual, an increase in premium goods is expected as the event progresses. The main threat at the moment becomes strong winds with the possibility of a few (potentially strong) tornadoes in the line.
Keep in mind that this is a sizable defined risk area running from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. As a result, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly who is likely to pose what threat. I’ve given you the “headache” for the area with the highest confidence for significant inclement weather, but also (somewhat worse) for the risk of severe severe weather extending further towards north and south of pink eye.
This is really a day where you need to pay attention to the weather. The ceiling for the event is high and for a large part of the country. Don’t let your guard down just because you’re a little further away from the most reliable or the scariest color.
Consult your local NWS or meteorologists for a more detailed look at your particular area. And, as always, there are ways to receive an alert and be ready to take shelter if an alert is issued.