After yesterday’s explosive second half of activity, we are facing another serious threat to today – surprisingly in the same region. You would think the atmosphere would be thoroughly worked out after yesterday, but enough time will pass between yesterday’s event and today’s event to begin for some recovery to occur.

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A flow boundary is present throughout southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Below this boundary, greater moisture exists.

This boundary is expected to act as a kind of warm front, lifting slightly north into mid-Georgia this afternoon. It will also be the epicenter for storm surges as the cold front approaches from the west.

Farther north, extremely severe storms are brewing in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. As these clouds and the associated cloud shield move northeast, some further clearing and destabilization is forecast over East Tennessee.

Therefore, our greatest risk areas today are from Central Alabama north to East TN and then south to large parts of Georgia.

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The low-level jet will accelerate this afternoon, increasing the shear margin.

While velocity shear is expected to be sufficient to support and sustain supercells, directional shear is somewhat lacking, with the exception of SE Alabama and S Georgia, where surface winds can be rapid from the south or even southeast solstice. This will provide a bit more shear to ensure a slightly higher tornado risk than the rest of the identified risk area.

Unlike many recent severe southeast events, CAPE (unrest) will not be lacking.

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Moisture reverse infiltration and additional surface heating from the broken cloud cover will result in a large amount of instability for approaching storms. This will help keep the lines up to date and the storms stronger.

So let’s look at the time.

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The storm will begin to bloom on the cold front in the next few hours.

As instability increased, discrete supercells became possible, especially along residual flow boundaries located throughout southern Georgia. Remember, due to locally enhanced directional shear, the tornado threat will be greatest in this area.

Advanced development into a multicellular/blob lineage can occur over time. The tornado hazard is predicted to decrease northward, however, it is not zero. At this point, strong winds become the main hazard with the possibility of eddy currents embedded in the line.

Farther west and north and a little later in the afternoon, a convection line will form ahead of the cold front, driven by lift from the system. With greater-than-normal availability instability, potential exists for discrete cells to form pre-current – although this is highly dependent on surface clearing and heating after showers morning move to the northeast.

Assuming that happens and the atmosphere destabilizes, these cells would contain a greater tornado threat to the Tennessee Valley. More specifically: Cumberland Plateau into East Tennessee. Once again, high-profile growth into a line is expected and the main threat turns to damaging winds. However, the tornado threat will not be zero. A spin-up is still possible in the line.

The chance of severe weather will lessen somewhat overnight as daytime heating is lost and the system crosses the Appalachians, but it will still be a lower-level threat and deserves attention during the hours. overnight.

So in summary:

Anyone from the leeward side of the South Appalachians south to the Florida Panhandle and east to the coastal Carolinas needs to take note of today’s weather. The potential for tornadoes is greater during the afternoon and evening hours in East TN, West AL and especially South GA. Harmful winds will remain a threat in the overnight hours as convection moves eastward ahead of the cold front.

There are many ways to get an alert and your shelter plan is ready to go. Take note of the weather today, friends!

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