As has been the case for most of the past week, “the air you can wear” still covers the southern United States.
Passing the area leads to warm, humid air from the Bay moving in for a little preview of summer. Not only did we have difficult days, but the storms that surfaced that afternoon were also numerous. However, as Armando mentioned in his Saturday blog, the pattern is about to change again.
Ridging will remain firmly entrenched in the West. As this ridge further amplifies, bottom forming is preferred to develop in the lower eastern United States.
This resulted in temperatures just slightly below average for the South – but slightly below average under the stronger trough in the Northeast. The biggest change the South will “feel” is the drier air moving in.
First, a short break from the humidity will move when a wind blows through tomorrow. Over the weekend, a stronger front will bring some significantly drier air. Well, at least significantly drier by the end of May.
The first front I mentioned, the one that moves through on Tuesday, will bring the risk of severe weather into the Lower Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.
Ahead of tomorrow’s front, local humidity combined with daytime heating under cloud cover/primarily sunny skies will allow a modest amount of CAPE to build up. By the time the storms reach the TN/OH Valley area in the late afternoon and evening, they will have around 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to power them.
Farther east in the Mid-Atlantic, pop-up storms are possible before the mainstream, which won’t pass through the area until overnight.
For hazards, wind damage will be the main threat. Some larger hail is possible. The tornado threat is very low, but not zero – mainly in the Mid-Atlantic.
- As always, there are ways to get an alert if any are issued.
- Make sure your safe space is ready to go. Sometimes stormy winds can close a punch.
- Inform people you know in the area about the possibility of severe weather so they can prepare. Outdoor activities are plentiful at this time of year. Being outside and not preparing to take shelter in the event of a storm is not ideal.
- Don’t forget the risk of lightning strikes from these storms. If you can hear thunder, you may be struck by lightning. Take shelter immediately.
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX