Invest 91L currently resides in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a distinctly low-level circulation (indicated by cumulus and cumulus clouds lying in curves) and bubbling convection above the circulation. Over the past few hours, we have managed to see a number of organizations with thunderstorms.
With the current weak vertical wind shear below 20 knots heading tomorrow morning, there is a 50% chance (according to the NHC) of tropical development into a tropical depression. However, it is inevitable that it will proceed to no more than a named tropical depression because although the weak shear is quite favorable for now, let’s see what happens in the next 24 – 36 hours. go out. Pay attention to the Gulf off the west coast of Florida, and you’ll see a belt of more than 30 knots of shear force suddenly shifting eastward into the Gulf. This will impede the circulation of 91L, causing it to tilt and eventually become a messy convection blob as we move into Saturday. So over the next 24 hours, we have a 50% chance of developing into the first named storm in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The name will be Arlene.
From the NHC hurricane spaghetti charts, we should see a net movement south before curving to the northeast. By the time we see the curve, it will be a pouring rain mess as we take a look below at what the NAM 12k does for example, supported by a strong consensus from all models count.
We can see how its initial organized circulation (to some extent) drifted south due to the medium control current, and then was destroyed. However, the main concern with this will be heavy rain and high winds in coastal areas mainly south of Tampa, FL targeting the southern part of the peninsula and especially locations in the southwest where we can see heavy rain 1-2”+ and heavy. This is most likely to lead to flash floods, albeit locally.
Following NAM 3km, we saw a 1-2″+ “black spot” mostly running through the southern portion of the Florida peninsula through Saturday night.
We’ve turned the page to June and it’s officially the start of hurricane season. Rather, it is more appropriate to have a tropical entity that we discussed on the first day! Going forward, however, the climate favors the Gulf, northern Caribbean, and southwestern Atlantic Ocean NHC. As always, follow us, the NHC or your local news so you can always be prepared, especially when living in vulnerable locations! We will stay at the forefront of any discussion-worthy tropical development that could bring any kind of impact to the United States!
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands