Easter waves breaking out of Africa at the start of hurricane season are common. Easter waves that survived their passage across the Atlantic and continued to develop into a legitimate tropical cyclone early in the hurricane season did not.

That doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened before. It happened – most recently with Hurricane Elsa in 2021 and before that in 2017 with Tropical Storm Bret.

In general, the Major Development Area (MDR) is hostile to the development of tropical waves early in the season. Dry air and shear are common during this time of year, making it extremely difficult for a tropical cyclone to power a self-sustaining, saturated, vertically stacked heat engine that powers the quantity for it.

Once in a while, however, the conditions become favorable enough and the timing is right that one can form.

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Invest Cue 94L.

Admittedly, this wave looks disorganized and a bit anemic at the moment. We’ll have to see how the overnight hours (daily maximum) introduce continuous convection.

Even so, it seems to have a wide eddy current, especially in the lower layers, and the frontal conditions are favorable for development.

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Modeling generally agrees that the medium through which the wave travels will remain moist, even though dry air lurks not very far away. Dry air in the vicinity doesn’t automatically trouble nascent TCs, but it can destroy a budding storm by entangling the circulation.

Will it, though? Current modeling suggests that the potential storm should be able to keep the air dry and continue to grow.

With cut projections also remaining mild, the big question regarding development is: Can this broad rotation consolidate?

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From a modeling perspective, the answer is: yes. However, the disturbance will need to generate a little more convection, separate from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and gain latitude. As a result, it would avoid much of the mainland of South America and remain above open water, allowing it to increase in power.

Let’s say it manages to break away from the ITCZ ​​first and consolidate and strengthen second. What is next? Where can we expect it to go?

Let’s take a look at the high pressure centers.

Both GEFS and EPS are currently agreeing on a tall building in the E US and into the Bay Area.

As our storm enters the Caribbean, this will leave it with no choice but to continue west into Central America.

For now, spaghetti models agree.

Keep in mind that tracking forecasts will change as things move over the next few days.

Until a true center takes shape, the models will struggle to determine an exact path. If the position or intensity of the high changes, there will be changes in the track. And, most importantly, this all depends on TC forming in the first place, which hasn’t happened yet. This is why most meteorologists would say “It’s too early to know the exact details.” Because it absolutely is. We don’t have a real TC yet, just a lurking noise zone. Until we do, forecasts can and will change.

One thing is for sure, however. I will be monitoring the disturbance shortly along with others and will update as needed through our blogs and Twitter feed.

Enjoy your weekend!

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