Nothing reminds us that the approaching hurricane season comes close to our first “official” area of concern highlighted by the NHC.
This very disorganized little whirlpool just northeast of the Bahamas is an area of interest.
As you can see from the satellite animation, although there is a clear circulation at the lower level, thunderstorm activity is less frequent and not centrally located.
As one might surmise from the satellite presentation, the odds of this little bit of mischief happening are extremely low, especially when crop increase and dry air still nearby.
Also, although the turbulence is currently moving along the edge of the water temperature somewhat favorably, it is forecast to continue moving north-northeast today. This would introduce already disorganized disturbance into waters too cold to support any tropical growth.
If it were forecast to move north-northwest along the Gulf Stream AND there was less dry air/climb, we might have a different situation at hand. However, given current forecasts and environmental conditions, it looks like we have nothing to fear about our first official “point of view”.
Can we expect additional areas of interest in the coming weeks?
Climatically speaking, this time of year is generally not favorable – both from a water temperature and water temperature standpoint – for those long-track systems to form.
However, we need to keep track of the old frontal boundaries stalled over warm water. Sometimes they try to make some tropical mischief, like the current shuffle did. While they’re not always successful, we’ll sometimes see an early-season storm forming near our homes in late May or most of June. As we move into July, the origins of tropical activity begin to shift further away. If you are interested, can find climate + map This on the NHC website.
In summary, the current disturbance is forecast to be nothing to worry about. In terms of future disturbances, we will be monitoring those old forward boundaries for signs of instability in the coming days, though nothing is guaranteed.
About the author
Meghan Gulledge
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX
