Summer is officially here and we’re talking about the tropics in today’s blog.
As you may have heard, we have a named storm currently active in the Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Bret. Also, following Bret, we have a shuffle called Invest 93L. Let’s address them individually below.
Tropical Storm Bret
Bret was initially forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it approached the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean. According to the latest official forecast, that is no longer the case. Bret is currently forecast to remain a tropical storm before dissipating in the Caribbean later this week.
Why the change? Even though above average water temperature To promote the development of these tropical waves, several environmental factors are working against China.
As you can see in the animation above, Bret is struggling with drier air, especially north of it. It hasn’t been able to maintain deep convection and fully wrap around its core, although it does appear to be firing a little as we move this afternoon.
Bret is also struggling with westward cropping, mainly on its north side. If you look back at the steam image, the shear force can be seen in the way the clouds are blown eastward to the north mentioned above.
Unfortunately for Bret, there’s even more shear waiting for it to push deeper into the Western Caribbean. This could be the reason why TC is forecast to dissipate by the end of this week; cutting is expected to tear it apart.
As Bret will most likely remain under hurricane status and therefore on the weaker side, it is forecast to continue moving westward through the Lesser Antilles and into the open seas of the Caribbean.
As we have known before, weak storms do not mean little or no impact. Heavy rain, tropical storm windshigh tide, and dangerous seas will hit the Lesser Antilles when the storm enters the Caribbean late Thursday/early Friday. Some further impacts could be felt across different Caribbean islands, but the severity of those impacts will depend on the size of China.
Invest 93L is only halfway through the MDR and still has a high chance of growth in the next 48 hours/7 days.
Sustainable convection is also unlikely for this disturbance, as you can see on the visible satellite loop (and the cloud peaks at the top of the blog). The air is dry and the cutting force is also working slightly above the 93L.
Unlike Bret, this disturbance is not expected to continue westward into the Caribbean. As Bermuda-Azores High retreats slightly eastward this weekend, the 93L will “feel” the weakness and turn NNW, out into the open sea.
Will it then become a threat to the US East Coast? The low pressure is forecast to cover most of the northern half of the coast. sound not possible at this time.
However, there is still no clearly defined center and therefore no real center to follow, at least we will have to keep an eye on its development and trends. Remember, without a defined center, the models and runs they create will jump around a bit from run to run.
Behind the 93L, another healthy-looking wave is emerging from the African coast.
Will this also be able to grow? Only time will tell.
As I mentioned earlier, even though the water is warm enough to allow these waves to grow, dry and distorted air can still get in the way.
We will update you on the status of the tropics as needed!
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX