At the end of Friday’s blog, in which I discussed how the omega block will break and the pattern will change, I briefly mentioned the change of another pattern – specifically for the region. Northwest – will be lurking this weekend.
If we look at the observed state/forecast for the Pacific North American Model (PNA), we will see that it has ranged from neutral to weak negative over the past half week or so. This correlates with the continued drop that persisted due to the aforementioned Omega Block.
Looking at the forecast period, we can see the PNA quickly turn into a strong positive phase (a sign of outperformance) by the end of the week.
Looking at an animation of the 500 mb height anomaly forecast, we see exactly that.
The upper western trough will slide under a large area of ridge extending from the central United States into Canada. Meanwhile, one of the axes of the ridge will begin to move back to the west. As the weekend approaches, the ridge begins to expand into western Canada and the northwestern United States.
Temperatures will gradually increase over the aforementioned areas. Early in the week, 20 to 30 degrees above average temperatures can be found in Central/Western Canada. Similarly, common above-average temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees can be found from Northwest to Southern California.
While it’s not a huge heatwave or anything, it does provide a bit of a quick heat stroke. Places that barely exceed 50 degrees today could reach close to 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Farther south, the Central Valley of California could reach 100 degrees on Sunday with desert regions exceeding that.
Is this a dangerous heat? Not particularly, unless you are sensitive to heat. But it’s a good reminder to start preparing for summer:
- Make sure your AC appliances are working.
- Think about how you can stay cool both at home and when you’re out and about.
- Check out the neighbors who might need a little help. The elderly and those with medical conditions do not handle heat well and may need a little more help.
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX