As we move into the upcoming weekend, we will finally, Final started to see some movement in a very stagnant flow. When things start to work again, a “split flow” will aid in creating a period of activity, with the chance that widespread severe weather will return.
If we look at the gif above, we can clearly see a few different pieces at work here.
- A large upper low off the southwest coast.
- A high pressure peak in the northernmost US/southern Canada.
- A surface trough on the Southern Plateau.
- A lowland just north of the Great Lakes region.
- A major upper low in the Northeast US.
As we begin Saturday, the weak surface trench on the Southern Plateau and a cold front emanating from the disturbance north of the Great Lakes will be our primary focus.
Storms are likely to continue from the night before (tonight, Friday) into early Saturday morning across the Southern High Plains. As the sun rises and energy builds up, these storms will strengthen as they enter a more favorable atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
Slope lapse rate and rich instability point for a big hail threat, especially in the early stages of the event. Additionally, dry air in the mesospheres points toward the threat of damaging winds, especially as hurricanes become more linear.
While the shear force doesn’t look too impressive, one or two tornadoes can’t be completely ruled out. The potential for tornadoes will likely depend heavily on medium-scale details that won’t be calculated until early morning AND limited to the north/central Texas area where hurricanes are likely to start as super class.
As for the cold front in the Northern Delta, I mentioned: along this front there will be a risk of much more severe weather than for the Northern/Central Delta.
If any of these storms become severe, they will bring lower-grade hail and the risk of damaging winds.
At dawn on Sunday, our main player will likely be the lowlands moving south across the Great Lakes Region and its accompanying frigid front.
Daytime heating in front of the sagging southern boundary will provide enough power for scattered severe storms, especially in the Mid-South and eastward to Tennessee and low Ohio Valley areas. than
With dry air and 30 kt+ winds available overhead, damaging winds appear to be the main threat at the moment. Weak speed shear and lack of directional shear would make the tornado threat unrealistic. However, some small hail may occur during stronger storms.
Regardless of whether or not the storms in your area turn severe, keep an eye on the weather during any of your outdoor activities as lightning is bound to accompany these storms.
Remember, if you are close enough to hear thunder, you are also close enough to be struck by lightning. This is important to remember during the summer months when many people spend a lot of time outdoors.
Finally, heavy rain from these storms can cause flash flooding.
If you’re traveling this weekend, be aware of any unfolding situations and remember to never drive through floodwaters as the road could be washed away below.
We’ll be looking at major changes next week as significant heat is likely over the southern US. More on that early next week!
About the author
Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for Weather.us and Weathermodels.com. Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX