The same cold front that caused severe weather Tuesday night through Wednesday across the southern plains will now slowly blanket the Gulf Coast and Southeast early Saturday. As it does so from above, we’ll see some dip shortwaves (parts of “energy”) emanating from the Gulf and essentially “passing” the boundary, increasing lift.
At 850mb you can create a front boundary through the convergence of lines from TX to SC. Also, be aware of the medium wind profile that emerges over the weekend with a permanent southerly wind blowing out of the Gulf creating both the advancement of warmth and humidity. This is a setup for heavy rainfall accompanied by T-shaped storms, which in this general vicinity can cause localized flooding to areas.
Along with this comes a very favorable saturated environment with a PWAT over an inch tall, spanning the aforementioned areas. Along with this you can create a long drooping front.
All in all, we can expect 1-2”+ prevalence (locally up to 3”), with “black eye” concentrated throughout SE TX and into LA where areas are visible up to 5 ” through Sunday, potentially causing worrying flash flood problems. The good news is that, behind this front, a ridge forms over the region with high pressure helping to usher in drier weather next week.
About the author
Hello! My name is Armando Salvadore and I am a Mississippi State graduate with a Bachelor of Professional Meteorology and an Activity Meteorologist working in the Private Sector. Stay tuned if you like technical, exotic, and general weather tweets! Also big on long-range forecasting as well! Twitter: @KaptMands