HomeUncategorizedYour 2023 Fourth-Cast | Blog

Your 2023 Fourth-Cast | Blog

Another summer vacation is upon us. The 4th of July is famous for its celebrations that gather outdoors. Among these are pool parties, barbecues, lake/ocean boating and, of course, fireworks.

So it’s not hard to imagine that a little bit of bad weather can ruin quite a few plans. Will the weather cooperate for your festivals this year? Let’s see together!


A quick look at the 500 mb Anomaly Elevation can give us an idea of ​​the overall pattern:

All three coasts (East, West, Gulf) are affected by ripples. This suggests warmer temperatures and perhaps air mass thunderstorms, especially in the eastern part of the US, where moisture from the Gulf of Mexico could set the stage.

In the north-central part of the country, we see trenches falling from the Rockies. If you’re familiar with weather patterns, this might lead you to surmise that a system will form. And, if conditions are right, extreme weather can occur.


Looking at the temperature anomalies projected for tomorrow, we can see that our assumptions based on the 500 mb Anomaly map are generally correct.

Above-average temperatures can be seen on all three coasts, with anomalies strongest in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes, where ripples are slightly stronger. From the Deep South to the Ohio Valley, we see pockets of mean to slightly below average temperature, which suggests the influence of cloud cover/air mass thunderstorms did. cool atmosphere.

In contrast, we see significantly lower average temperatures in the North-Central US, where we expect a system to form.


Through the use of Synoptic Composite, we can clearly see that trough dug down into said area while warm, moist air is drawn up in front of it. So yes, we will have the ingredients for severe thunderstorms scattered from the Upper Five Lakes through the Great Plains.


While this is primarily a risk of wind and hail, a few tornadoes are possible – particularly in the Central Highlands.

In addition, when air mass storms break out over the East Coast and Southeast, some can become severe. The main threat posed here would be damaging winds.

Whether you expect severe weather tomorrow or not, let’s not ignore the risk of lightning strikes.


Storms don’t have to be severe to produce dangerous lightning.

I’m sure you’re tired of hearing this from me, but the important thing is:

If you’re close enough to hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck by lightning. Even if your particular location doesn’t look stormy, if you hear thunder, get inside immediately. Cloud-to-ground lightning from the anvil of an average storm can travel up to 12 miles from the storm itself.

This bit of information is especially important on a day like tomorrow, where many people will be celebrating outdoors.

One more thing to discuss before I end it:


Don’t ignore the heat. Temperatures will be dangerously hot in the southwest and inching towards the northwest. Also, while the temperatures aren’t as hot as they’ve been lately in the South/Southeast, the humidity will make you feel much hotter.

Be careful about the amount of time you spend outside. Stay hydrated, stay out of the sun and stay as cool as possible. Remember to check in with family and friends to see if they are still calm.

Happy and peaceful Wednesday! Armando and I are taking family time off tomorrow, but will be back to blogging and tweeting regularly on Wednesday mornings!

About the author

Meghan Gulledge

Meghan Gulledge

Meteorologist – ’22 Mississippi State Writer for and Focus on weather communication. BoyMom x1, CatMom ​​x5. Twitter: @MegGulledgeWX


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